|
|
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Bright Steel
Horizons' Edge
1239
   |
Posted - 2015.05.03 13:05:00 -
[1] - Quote
I would say 25 to 40 for a gal or min since they are easier to win FW battles with and up to 300 for amarr or cal
Costs 10mil plus 100k LP
100k LP equals roughly 83 battles for me which is a potential for
83 battles * 200k per battle=16.6mil
Now you also have to consider the extra que times, it can take as long as half a ambush to get into a FW battle. So then that would push the 16.6 up 50% to 33.2mil giving us a total of 43.3mil
Amarr or cal
That's tricky because for a solo player they are grinding 150 LP at a time for a lose or you need to q-synch for a win which requires more effort. The solo is about 10 times less LP and a high likely hood of loosing money in losing battles...
Thus the 160-300 million
Dust 514, the BEST WORST game you can't stop playing.
|
Bright Steel
Horizons' Edge
1239
|
Posted - 2015.05.03 13:29:00 -
[2] - Quote
Arkena Wyrnspire wrote:Bright Steel wrote:
Amarr or cal
That's tricky because for a solo player they are grinding 150 LP at a time for a lose or you need to q-synch for a win which requires more effort. The solo is about 10 times less LP and a high likely hood of loosing money in losing battles...
Thus the 160-300 million
I'm going to go ahead and shoot this one down. The market isn't going to accommodate people acquiring these items in the worst, most inefficient and time consuming way possible. The minimum LP earned is 195, even for a loss at standings level 0. Under your suggested conditions, where the opportunity cost is 200k per match, the number of matches taken to grind this much LP at 100% loss rate standings level 0 is 513. That means the opportunity cost total is about 103 mil, plus the 10 mil base purchase price. 300 million, therefore, is horrendously overpriced. There are Q-sync groups for both Amarr and Caldari who win consistently (or at least claim to) as well. These people are certainly not rank 0 and even if you manage only a 25% win rate you're looking at a cost roughly maxing out at 60 mil. Thanks for your contribution, though. 
Sorry for they off numbers but the principle stands.
That's why I said it was tricky, who is going to sell them?
If I had to grind for it solo I will want a premium for it or I won't sell.
Given I don't actually see it going for 100 mill or more, but I think this "cost to aquire" will factor into the price. In the end price is the result of supply and demand and amarr and cal will most likely be lower in supply and thus higher in price and this will be compounded by the difficulty to win battles for them.
Honestly if min and gal settled in at, let's say 25 million, then I see amarr and cal going for about 35 or 40...
Dust 514, the BEST WORST game you can't stop playing.
|
Bright Steel
Horizons' Edge
1241
|
Posted - 2015.05.03 15:02:00 -
[3] - Quote
Arkena Wyrnspire wrote:Bright Steel wrote:
Sorry for they off numbers but the principle stands.
That's why I said it was tricky, who is going to sell them?
If I had to grind for it solo I will want a premium for it or I won't sell.
Given I don't actually see it going for 100 mill or more, but I think this "cost to aquire" will factor into the price. In the end price is the result of supply and demand and amarr and cal will most likely be lower in supply and thus higher in price and this will be compounded by the difficulty to win battles for them.
Honestly if min and gal settled in at, let's say 25 million, then I see amarr and cal going for about 35 or 40...
The point is that you may want a premium for it, having ground for it solo, but if there are people doing it so vastly more efficiently than you, nobody is going to want to buy from you. You may want 100 mil from it, but if some hardcore Q-syncers are selling at half your price, people aren't going to be buying from you if you insist on that much. Demand isn't likely to be massively high anyway, and at those prices people are going to want to look around for a good seller. As for the rest, though - mostly agreed. Am/Cal are going to be higher priced than Min/Gal. Not so much that Am/Cal go for 10x the price, though. Anyway, I don't think prices will drop so drastically as to reach something as low as 25 mil either. I'll publish a spreadsheet shortly, but the minimum opportunity cost from a standings level 10 player with a 100% win rate isn't likely to go that low.
Looking forward to it.
My numbers were based on the lost income I would see from grinding the 100k LP and not the overall worth in the eyes of the buyer and I can see your point there.
Also could consider the arum value of these suits in conjunction with the LP value. 55k arum per suite is a lot... Do you think that will influence the price?
I think I would drop $25 to get 75 million ISK....
Dust 514, the BEST WORST game you can't stop playing.
|
Bright Steel
Horizons' Edge
1243
|
Posted - 2015.05.03 15:26:00 -
[4] - Quote
Arkena Wyrnspire wrote:Bright Steel wrote:
Also could consider the arum value of these suits in conjunction with the LP value. 55k arum per suite is a lot... Do you think that will influence the price?
Not really. The thing is that there's probably going to be a pretty decent supply of these relative to the number of buyers. Not everyone can afford to throw around lots of ISK without caring whether they got a good deal or not, so most folks are going to be looking for a reasonable price. If the FW people can afford to sell cheaper and are actually selling cheaper, it doesn't matter whether it's more expensive to get them with AUR or not - people will buy the FW versions, not the AUR ones. Think about it. There are two ways to make something. One costs more than the other, but both can meet demand. Which way are people going to use?
You almost make me think that you have thought this through
Dust 514, the BEST WORST game you can't stop playing.
|
|
|
| |
|